Why not to gamble..

Well, first let me start by saying I didn't actually lose any money. I'm in a season-long pool that includes weekly prizes, so the $200 I just missed out on would have been a prize. Now, I just had a bad feeling as soon as the Saints scored that this wasn't over... How right I was..

For those just joining us, the pool I am in has over 75 people. Each week, you pick any 5 NFL games of your choice, with the spread. There's a weekly $200 prize (that's the entry fee as well, so win one week, and you break even), and end-of-season prizes for 1st-3rd and last.

Going into Monday night, I was the only person with none wrong this week. 4/4 with the Saints -9.5 points. The Saints win and cover, I win the weekly prize. Even if they don't, I'm tied with a few other people with 4 wins, but then it comes down to the tie-breaker of combined Monday night points. I had 58, but someone had 57 and someone else had 59, so I was boxed it. It'd have to be exactly 58 points to win that way.

So when Pierre Thomas made a pretty gutsy dive into the endzone on third and goal, that put the Saints up by 11 with 3:03 left in the game. I was feeling pretty good, but not great.

Then it was one of those "everything that could go wrong, will go wrong" scenarios. Let's recount the final minutes, shall we?

1.) On first and ten, Atlanta QB Matt Ryan overthrows Tony Gonzalez by a bit, the ball hits off his hands, and lands right Saints DB Darren Sharper's hands. And the ball proceeds to get knocked away from him by another Saint defender that goes flying by. He holds onto that ball, it's basically game over.

2.) Last play before the two-minute warning, 3 plays later, after picking up a first down, Matt Ryan is stripped from behind by Saints DE Will Smith. The ball bounces forward, and a Saints defender pounces on it. Like a smart player, he doesn't try and advance the ball at all, just cradles it and lays there until a Falcon touches him down. No whistles, no indications it was an incomplete pass. Looks like Saints ball, and basically game over. But wait. Since the play started BEFORE the two-minute warning, the Falcons can challenge it. And they have one timeout remaining, so they do. While the announcers debate it a bit (and they're usually wrong anyways), I try and remain impartial. It looked like the ball was knocked out of his hand before it started coming forward, but it sorta sat there in space, so when his arm continued forward, it pushed it. I wouldn't call that "possession" when his arm was coming forward, but it's close. I'm hoping since it's "inconclusive" that the ref lets the play stand as it was called on the field. Which means Saints ball under 2 minutes, no Falcons timeouts. Game over. No such luck. The ref overturns it, saying he still had possession. Falcons ball, they keep their time out. 2 minute warning.

3.) Thank the lord for Gregg Williams. The Saints defensive coordinator has had success for several different teams, and I can see why. Instead of going into the usual Prevent defense, he's still mixing up his coverage and pass rushes, even occasionally sending blitzes at Matt Ryan. Blitzing up 11 with under 2 minutes to go? Unheard of! And it works. 3 incompletions after the non-fumble, and the Saints get the ball back on downs with 1:42 left in the game.

4.) Let's do some math, shall we? 40 second play clock. Atlanta has one timeout. So assume Atlanta uses it after 1st down, which should take about 3-5 seconds off the clock. Let's be conservative and say 3. 2nd down, even if they snap it with 2 seconds left on the play clock, the play itself and whistles and whatnot and spotting it will take at least 2 more seconds, so that's 40 seconds gone. 3rd down? Same thing -40 seconds. So that's MINIMUM 83 seconds. That's 1:23. Which means Saints punt with 19 seconds left. The punt itself should take a good 5-8 seconds minimum, so the Falcons, best case scenario, will have the ball at their own 20-30 with under 10 seconds. If Matt Ryan can even reach the end zone from there (and no clue if he could or not), it'd take a miracle play. And they're still down 2 scores at this point, so do they even bother? More likely than not, the clock expires before then. Got all that? Good.

5.) 1:42 on the clock. First down - run play up the middle. For some unknown reason, as the play ends the Saints center is day dreaming and looking up in the sky as two 300 pound linemen roll into him. The hit him in the knee, he goes down like a sack of potatoes. 1:37 on the clock. Injury within the final two minutes, the Saints are forced to take a timeout. Forced! That injury just saves the Falcons their own timeout, and 40 seconds on the clock. Oh boy.

6.) No need to panic, right? The Saints can still run the ball twice and run off 40+ seconds before punting from around midfield and pinning Atlanta deep. Right? 2nd down, run up the middle for no gain. Atlanta uses their final timeout. 1:31 remaining.

7.) The last two plays took 5 and 6 seconds each, so now the Saints can run it on 3rd down and Atlanta cannot stop the clock. That will take it down to about 46 seconds. I'm wondering why they don't just take a knee here as they hike the ball. Handoff to Mike Bell, up the middle into a mass of humanity. He's down, the clock keeps ticking. But wait, why the hell are some Falcons signaling their ball? Wishful thinking, it must be. No way he wasn't down. But sure enough, with only one arm on the ball, he gets stripped as he keeps pumping his legs and going nowhere into the pile. Fumble. Atlanta ball. But wait, booth review. Maybe it'll go my way this time. Nope, he was lying on some people, his ass, nor his knees, nor his hips, nor his empty fucking skull touched the ground before he was stripped. Great. Scratch Mike Bell off my Christmas card list. The clock is set to 1:23.

8.) Gregg Williams remains determined to not go into prevent, and Saints DE Will Smith is still playing like a man possessed. Short pass to Gonzalez across the middle. Tick tick tick.. They line up and spike it at the Saints 39. 1:02 left.

9.) The announcers are talking about how they might kick a field goal first if they're in range, since they need two scores anyways. I've heard announcers talk about this many many times before. I can't remember actually seeing a team do that. Gruden is the voice of reason, explaining how it'd be much nicer to get the TD first while you're down here so that you have less distance to go for the game-winning field goal. I start to pray that the Falcons coaches feel the same way.

10.) Pass down the sideline from Matt Ryan to Michael Jenkins. He's pushed out of bounds as he catches it. Incomplete. But wait. Here we go again. Booth review. As they show the replay on TV, the announcers all agree it's a completion. NO FUCKING WAY!! I shout angrily at the TV. There's NO evidence that the big toe on his left foot touched in bounds. It sure as hell looks like it's in the air, almost forced there by his right foot immediately behind it. There's no sign of the dirt or charlk or anything being kicked up by that foot. No grass movement. Nothing. It was very similar to the game-winning Stealers catch last Super Bowl actually. The difference there is it was ruled a catch on the field. This one was ruled incomplete. But, again, the fucking replay screws me. Somehow the ref rules that a catch. I don't see it. I'm fuming now.

11.) 1st down at the Saints 23, 52 seconds left. Sack! Tick tick tick tick tick... It IS field goal range, but they're at the 23, pretty good shot at the end zone from here. Get the TD first.

12.) Ryan spikes the ball with 37 seconds left. 3rd down.

13.) Short checkdown pass to the 22. 4th and 9. They'll go for it, right? Wrong. Apparently someone does believe in the "kick it first" philosophy. Son of a bitch.

14.) It's up, and it's good. I am now punching the pillows on my living room couch, gritting my teeth, and yelling "Fuck fuck fuck!" in a loud whisper. Saints 35, Falcons 27. That's only 8 points, now a point and a half shy of covering.

15.) I tell myself "Okay, well now they're going to try the onsides kick, and I HAVE seen a receiving team take that to the house once or twice. So I'm not totally and completely dead yet." It's a lie. I know it, you know it, everyone does. But I still don't turn off the TV just yet.

16.) The Falcons recover the onside kick with 26 seconds left. Good. Now I'm rooting for them to win the game outright so the Saints lose. I'm already fucked, I'd might as well see the team that fucked me get fucked too, right?

17.) No such luck. A short pass, and a Hail Mary into the end zone. Oh sure, THIS time Darren Sharper holds on to the interception. Thanks for nothing. Dickweed.

So, to summarize:
- Not one, not two, but THREE replays actually overturned plays that would have significantly increased my odds of winning. Two of which seemed very questionable about whether there was "indisputable" evidence. Fucking a, I'm disputing it, so that makes it not indisputable right there. That referee can blow me. In fact, I'm going to look up right now who it was. If it was that Leavy guy from Super Bowl XL, I might just have to do something drastic.. Nope, it was some guy named Jeff Triplette. Well, he's on my shit list now.

- A freak knee injury stopping the clock because the fucking center decided to stargaze and not pay attention to the bodies around him falling towards his legs. J. Goodwin. Hands on his hips, humming to himself, "La la la la la la" as large violent human beings crash around him. He's on my shitlist now too.

- On 3rd down in an obvious situation, Mike Bell is running with only one hand on the ball. He has it tucked under his arm like he's the Heisman fucking Trophy or something, like he's going to be able to use his free hand to stiff-arm all 11 opposing players trying to tackle him. I'm sad the Falcons didn't pull this one out after that blunder, because I would have loved to see him get cut tomorrow. Are NFL players really this dumb? Couldn't Drew Brees or an offensive lineman or someone remind him, "Hey, hang onto the ball, numnuts" before breaking the huddle? Unbelievable.

- And last but not least, down 11 points with 31 seconds to go, the Falcons actually kick a field goal rather than going for it. It was 4th down, so I guess I can't blame them TOO TOO much. But still. It's almost like they kicked it just to get under the spread.

Anyways, the bottomline is I don't think I'll be picking the fucking Saints again this season. In fact, I hope they go on a 9-game losing streak and miss the playoffs.

Thanks for reading. Typing this out has allowed me to stop shaking with rage, and I believe I can now fall asleep. Night! Fuck you Mike Bell!