Week 1 Picks

Starting off 1-0 is a good way to begin! And yes, I picked the Pats last night, even though I was sweating out those 7.5 points after that Moss TD, yikes. Brady looked good. Kerry Collins didn't. And the Pats won as usual.

Now on to the rest of week 1!...

You know the drill.. Home team in CAPS, St. Ides picks in blue, Samichlaus picks in green.

PATS (-7.5) over the Raiders
Chalk up a winner here! I would have said something about how the Raiders D isn't very good, and how Kerry Collins would choke once the Pats defense confuses him a bit. I would have been right. ;)

I had the Pats too, but I never thought the score would be as close as it was. Honestly I would have had the Pats winning 34 -16

Chicago (+6.5) over WASHINGTON
Two good defenses. Two crappy offenses. I think the Chicago D is slight better. And the defenses are a push. The game will be pretty close, so even if Chicago loses, take the points. Bears 16, Skins 13.

I’ve been in Richmond way too long ‘cause I’m buying all the Skins hype. In fact ‘ol Samichlaus took the Skins in his “eliminator” pool for week 1. Call it a combination of Skins hype and an inborn belief that the Bears will always suck Skins 17 Bears 10

CLEVELAND (+3.5) over Cinci
I meant to say it in the intro, but I'll say it here. Week 1 is probably the toughest week to pick. The pre-season really doesn't tell you enough about who has improved or gotten worse. Most people think Cleveland will totally suck this year. But it's opening day at home against the arch-rival Bengals. Trent Dilfer is better than quite a few starting QBs in the league, and I still believe Braylon Edwards will be good. This game should be close enough to go with the points. Browns 24, Bungles 20.

This morning I heard Boomer Esiason call Carson Palmer the best young QB in football. That’s good enough for me. Cleveland’s new head coach Romeo Crennel will be asking for his broadsword by the time this one’s over. That’s Shakespeare boys. I think St. Ides has it backwards: Bungles 24, Browns 20

Denver (-4.5) over MIAMI
Miami will challenge San Fran for worst team this year, but I think their D and running game ought to keep them from being the very worst. Still, I don't see Gus Frerotte leading this team to very many victories. Yes, even Jake Plummer ought to beat this team on the road. Broncos 23, Dolphins 13.

Yep. Add to the mix that Ricky Williams is out for four weeks and it’s last years Dolphins without Jim Bates. Broncos 31 Dolphins 10.

BUFFALO (-5.5) over Houston
This is kind of a lot of points to give for J.P. Losman's first game as a starter. But I think the Buffalo D is good enough to give David Carr absolute fits of madness. We all know how bad the Texans O-line is. Look for 4-6 sacks and 1-2 picks. Bills 20, Texans 10.

I watched Buffalo’s defensive line dominate the Packers twice in the preseason. Plus, big Sam Adams is on my fantasy team. The Bill will score a TD on defense lightening the load on Losman. There’s a great line in “Raging Bull”, after Jake Lamotta (DeNiro) absolutely massacres a boxer his wife referred to as a “good looking fighter”: “He ain’t pretty no more”. Can you say David Carr? Bills 24 Texans 14

New Orleans (+7.5) over CAROLINA
Tough call here. I mean, what can you say about New Orleans that hasn't already been said? Tough situation for the team and the area. Either they get destroyed or they play inspired and keep it close. Carolina is probably one of the top teams in the NFC this season, so it'll be a real test for the Saints. I say they make a game of it and cover, but lose a close one. Panthers 19, Saints 17.

I took New Orleans in this one too and here’s why: The Saints are going to be so friggin fired up, like beyond belief. Mark my words: they win it out right. Saints 20 Cats 17 in the Samichlaus “Shocker of the Week”

KANSAS CITY (-3.5) over the Jets
I don't trust Pennington's arm. I think Herm Edwards is an awful coach. I think the Chiefs defense will be improved. And I think Priest Holmes will be ready to run wild and prove he's healthy again. Chiefs 34, Jets 23.

Arrowhead is probably the toughest field to win an away game. The Chiefs are good enough, and the Jets aren’t. Chiefs 41 Jets 13. Think I’m kidding? I’m not.

Seattle (+3.5) over JACKSONVILLE
This will be a tough opened for Seattle. Either it's going to be like 90 degrees (and the Jags are forcing Seattle to wear their dark jerseys in the heat) or there will be heavy rain due to tropical storm Ophelia brewing off the coast. A lot of people are picking Byron Leftwich to make The Leap this year. I'm not one of them. The Jags D is good, but I think Seattle's offense should still be able to move the ball. The question in this game, and the whole season, is how good is Seattle's new defense? Let's not forget Fred Taylor didn't play much this pre-season and has a bum knee. If that doesn't help the Seahawks' run defense, I don't know what will. Seahawks 21, Jaguars 14

As my wife mentioned yesterday Ophelia will probably linger a bit longer then drift off and commit suicide. That’s also Shakespeare boys. I’ll say Seahawks 35 Jaguars 21

VIKINGS (-6.5) over Tampa Bay
A lot of people love the Vikings this year. I think they'll probably win the division, but they'll lose some games they should win. Why? Simple - Mike Tice. He's not a good coach. Still, they ought to beat the Bucs. Handily. Vikings 37, Bucs 20.

The Bucs play the Vikings very tough and Jon Gruden can out coach Mike Tice any day of the week. Let me just get this off my chest: Tice is the biggest f’ing idiot I’ve ever seen become a head coach. Well, that’s not true. The Giants Ray Handley was a bigger idiot. Oh, and the Jets Rich Kotite. Yeah, and then there was Dan Devine and Scooter McLean in Green Bay. OK. Tice isn’t the biggest idiot to ever become a head coach, but he looks like the evil Private Investigator on the HBO series “Carnevial”. Bucs bust the Viking hype bubble: Bucs 24 Viqueens 13.

STEELERS (-7.5) over Tennessee
I think Big Ben is coming crashing down to earth early this season. But not week 1, not against this Titans defense that has lost every recognizable name. Steelers 27, Titans 17

The problem here is the Steelers have lost every recognizable name on offense, well except for Ben Roethlisberger. You want to bet that Mississippi native Steve McNair won’t be fired up for this game? Tennessee 27 Steelers 24

Arizona (+2.5) over the GIANTS
Everybody is jumping on the Arizona bandwagon. I'm not. But what the hell, might as well let it ride on them for week 1. How's this for a bit of irony. Last year at this time, Kurt Warner was starting for the Giants. A few games into the season, he ran into the defensive juggernaut known as the Arizona Cardinals, had an awful game, and got benched in favor of Eli Manning. So his last game as a starter was when he played for the Giants against the Cardinals. Can the Giants provide a little payback, and knock him out as well? It wouldn't be a stretch to think so. I'm going to take the Cardinals, but just barely. If they win, I can celebrate picking them. If they lose, I can celebrate them already being 0-1 in the same division as Seattle. Cardinals 26, Giants 23.

I think the Giants have a legitimate shot in this game, but here’s what I see happening: Warner’s going to play well against a defense he’s familiar with; The Arizona defense will play as good as advertised; Eli Manning is worse off than they’re admitting. Cardinals win 24-13

SAN DIEGO (-4.5) over Dallas
I'm not buying into the Drew Bledsoe resurrection. I'm not buying into the "Dallas is this year's Chargers!" bullshit. What I am buying into is LaDanian Tomlinson as the best RB in the NFL, and Drew Brees having enough talent that opposing defenses cannot stack the box with 8. Chargers 24, Cowboys 17.

I like the analysis, and I think that Bill Parcells was a great coach about 10 years ago. The game and time has passed him, no offense to the Orientals. Bolts 24 Boys 10.

Green Bay (+3.5) over DETROIT
Shootout, wild west style yo! If Joey Harrington cannot get it going against this defense, he's done for, stick a fork in him. This should be a fun game to watch. I think Favre does just enough to pull this one out, and Harrington does just enough to lose it. Packers 38, Lions 35.

The more I think about this game the more I like Detroit. But I’m taking the Pack. That’s pride fucking with me. Oh, and that’s Tarantino boys. Take the over. Packers 34 Lions 27.

St. Louis (-6.5) over SAN FRAN
Niners suck. Tim Rattay might put together a scoring drive or two against this mediocre defense, but not more than that. One thing that also has annoyed me this off-season is some of the "experts" raving about the Rams improved D. Uhm, all they did was add like 2 LBs that not many other teams had interest in. Yet Seattle's new D with 7 new starters is still questionable? The Rams D is just as suspect as the Seahawks. Still, the Niners suck. Rams 31, Niners 16

Who’s the worst team in the NFL, the Niners or the Dolphins? I’ll take the Niners in that competition but that’s about all I’ll be taking them for this season. I like St. Louis big: Rams 37 San Fran 13.

Indy (-3.5) over BALTIMORE
League's best offense versus league's best defense? Maybe. But what about the Ravens offense? Can Kyle Boller improve, and make key passes? Will Jamal Lewis bounce back from his jail sentence and be effective? I read somewhere (I think it was on ESPN) where some corrections officer wrote in and said that even his short prison term would have a big effect on his physical condition. They're fed generally crap food, and short-term inmates like Lewis don't get access to weights because of liability costs. So although it's trendy to say he bounces back with a vengeance, physically, he just might not be up for it. Colts 27, Ravens 23.

Indianapolis has been drafting defense for what, five years now? Eventually this has to click and I think this season it finally does. I also think Peyton Manning comes back to earth, though I have no worldly reason why. The Colts could be scary good, but I think this one is lower scoring that every one thinks it’s going to be. Colts 20 Ravens 13

Philly (-2.5) over ATLANTA
I said it in my QB analysis thingy, and I'll say it again - I think Michael Vick is overrated. Until he wins an important close game with his arm, I will continue to believe he can not lead a team to the Super Bowl. I suppose this would qualify as an important game, since it is on a Monday night against the defending NFC Champions. So, what do you say, Michael? Put away the tap-dancing shoes for a moment, and let's see you use that arm to win a game. I don't see it happening against this defense. Eagles 23, Falcons 16.

Vick and his filthy clap infested penis make me sick. I’m sick of Michael and sick of Marcus and sick of all the hype that surrounds them. In reality they are 2 gifted athletes who have questionable values and haven’t proven squat on the football field. In fact the only thing that disgusts me more than the Vicks is Philadelphia. That whole town is a friggin cesspool. Anyway, enough social commentary. Philly wins 24 – 20.