Week 3 Picks

Wow, I sucked last week. But you know what, so did a lot of those "experts" and they're picking WITHOUT the spread. Peter King (aforementioned writer from SI who's pissing me off lately) admitted to going just 4-12 last week with no point spread involved. Straight up, he only picked 4 games correctly. That makes me feel a little better. What will make me feel a lot better is getting every game right this week.

Last week was a strange week for picking games. On one hand, I went 8-8 which was pretty good. Plus I’m kicking Donovan McNabb’s Mom’s fat ass. I’m in the 82nd percentile and moving up. I also correctly predicted the Pats loss, which NOBODY got right. On the other hand, the Bears, Jets, and (uggh) Cleveland shocked me.

Atlanta (+0.5) over BUFFALO
I guess the question is who was more exposed last week? Atlanta on the road against a decent defense, or rookie QB J.P. Losman against a good defense? Really, I'm tempted to take the Bills at home in this one, especially with Vick a bit gimpy. But I say the Atlanta defense steps up a notch and I think Mora is a good enough coach to get them to bounce back and win this one. Falcons 17, Bills 13.

I like Vick and his herpes infested penis in this game too. Ed Donatel is a smart enough defensive coordinator to sufficiently confuse J.P. Losman. Look for Atlanta to have several picks while winning easy. Atlanta wins 24 -13

Carolina (-3.5) over MIAMI
I'm not sure if we know more or less this week than we did last week. Carolina just beat the Patriots, but the Patriots were sloppy. Miami also played an ugly game, keeping it close with the Jets. I think the defenses are pretty much a wash here, but the Panthers offense ought to be good enough to cover. But just barely. Panthers 17, Dolphins 13.

I like the Cats too. The Cats are a good, well coached team. The Fins are well coached, but they’re not that good. Sure they kept it close against the Jets, but the Jets are terrible. The Patsies were ripe for the pickins. I look for the Cats to follow up with a big win and not a letdown. Panthers 31- Miami 17

CHICAGO (+3.5) over Cinci
Are the Bears the sleeper team of the year? Or has Carson Palmer finally come into his own and ready to be a Pro Bowl caliber QB? My dad usually preaches "Always take a home team getting points." Sometimes I listen, sometimes I don't. I think these teams are closely enough matched that I'll take the home team and the points. Bears 20, Bengals 17.

I’m going with the theory that the Bears game last week was an anomaly. Besides, and in case I haven’t mentioned it, Boomer Esiason thinks that Carson Palmer is the best young QB in the league. As they sing in Wisconsin : “The Bears still suck”. Bungles 20, em-Bear-asses 10

INDY (-13.5) over Cleveland
Manning really hasn't gone off yet. I think it's time. And maybe the Colts defense really is for real, who knows? Colts 31, Browns 17.

I’m not sure what went wrong for Indy last week, though they won and as St. Ides pointed out to me did not cover. I contend that Indianapolis is the best team in football right now, but I think 13.5 is a lot of points. Cleveland has a good D, so I’m taking the bait. Indy wins but does not cover for the second week in a row: Indy 24 -17

Jaguars (+0.5) over JETS
The Jets were fairly lucky to win an ugly game versus a pretty bad Miami team last week. While the Jaguars shut down the league's best offense. I made this one my "double" pick of the week. Pennington ought to be good for 2-3 picks this game. Jaguars 24, Jets 10.

I see it that way as well. The Jets truly surprised me last week by winning. No surprises here against a quality opponent: Jaguars 27 – Jets 13

Saints (+4.5) over VIKINGS
The heat is on the Vikings, and once Culpepper throws his first interception, the boo-birds will be out, and suddenly it won't be much of a home field advantage... Meanwhile, the Saints are coming off a tough "home" loss played in Giant stadium. I think they bounce back, and even if they don't quite win the game, it should be within a field goal. Saints 27, Vikings 24.

I think the Vikes show up at home and play their best game of the season. That team has so much goddamn talent it makes me sick. They would be dominating (singing here) “if they only had a brain”. The truth about the Saints is a sad truth: they’re not very good. The Vikings get their first win: 34- 20

PHILLY (-7.5) over Oakland
I'm going to say McNabb and Owens at home are a bit better than Whiskey Collins and Moss on the road. Plus Philly has a better defense by far. The countdown until the Moss mental breakdown begins this week as Collins can't hit the broad side of a barn. Eagles 31, Raiders 20.

This is a tough game to pick. The Eagles looked un-friggin-stoppable last week. Oakland has Randy Moss, and that’ll always keep a game close. Plus, Moss likes to show up for big games. I’m taking the Raiders and the points. Eagles 34 – Raiders 31

PACKERS (+3.5) over Tampa Bay
Green Bay has me worried. But I can't give them points at home, just can't do it. When was the last time Green Bay lost 2 in a row at home? As good as Tampa Bay has looked, I don't think they get that done. Packers 21, Bucs 17.

First, let me say that I can not remember the last time the Packers were a home dog. Second, let me say that the tone out of Green Bay is anything but urgent. Third, let me say that Tampa has a good team with the leagues number one ranked defense. Fourth, let me say that the Bucs head coach, Jon Gruden, was one of Favre’s Quarterback coaches under Mike Holmgren. With all that said, let me suggest that you pick the Bucs. I, however, am taking the Packers. Packers 24 – Bucs 23

Titans (+6.5) over RAMS
The Rams ought to win this game at home against a mediocre Titans team. Although the Titans are riding a high after shocking the Ravens last week. The Rams offense is a bit more explosive than the Titans, but a couple turnovers, a patented Martz bone-headed move or two, and a late Titans score in garbage time keeps them from covering. Rams 31, Titans 27.

The greatest show on turf comes home to roost this week. I’m looking for a big game out of the Rams offense, and a crap performance out of the Titans. I like the Rams big: Rams 38 – Titties 17

SEAHAWKS (-6.5) over Cardinals
If Seattle is for real, they win this game handily. In a reverse of last week's successful reverse psychology pick, I'm going to keep the faith and hope they batter Warner and co. Seahawks 31, Cardinals 20.

The battle of the birds. Sorry, I had to pause and look at that again. Yeah, here’s the Sami-scoop: Seattle is going to keep getting better as the year goes on. That’s a good young team with some studs on both sides of the ball. Arizona will prove to be another over-hyped pretender. I’m going with the Chicken Hawks: Seattle 27 – Arizona 13

NINERS (+6.5) over Dallas
That Monday night loss has got to be killing Parcells and his team right now. How do they bounce back after a short week to go to San Fran? Well, I think they probably win, but just barely. In two plays last week, Dallas went from people calling them a contender, to a bit of a joke. Maybe this is my anti-Parcells bias speaking, but whatever. Cowboys 17, Niners 13.

No way the Cowboys lose this game. The question is do they have the chops to cover? I’m going with a resounding yes and not so much because the Cowboys are so good, but more because the Niners are so damn bad. I never thought I’d see the day… Boys 27 – Niners 13

Pats (+3.5) over STEELERS
Can the Patriots bounce back after the dreadful loss last week? As our anonymous Pats fan pointed out, Brady did his best Bledsoe impersonation. And their defense does not look as good as in the past. I think the Steelers win this one, but 3 points is too much to be giving the defending champs. Steelers 19, Patriots 17.

Another tough game to forecast, but I’m picking the Pats. Here’s their opportunity to show Pittsburgh who’s boss. It’s going to be a low scoring snot bubbler, but the Patriots win it outright. Patsies 17 - Steelers 7

Giants (+6.5) over CHARGERS
The Giants have looked pretty good so far on both sides of the ball. They win this game, and suddenly they are 3-0 and that extra home game against the Saints looms large in the playoff picture. I don't think they win this game against an 0-2 Chargers team that are two plays away from being 2-0, but I do think they keep it close. Chargers 29, Giants 24.

This is a case of the bookies know something that Samichlaus doesn’t. The Bolts are giving a TD to the Giants? That seems excessive. Don’t be surprised if the Giants win this game outright. For posterities sake I’ll go Bolts 24 – Giants 21.

Chiefs (+3.5) over BRONCOS
I like the Chiefs a lot this year (peek back at my AFC preview). Now seeing them in action, their defense looks for real, Larry Johnson has looked awesome paired with Priest Holmes, and they're 2-0. Another tough road game after winning in Oakland last week, but I think Denver is on a downward slide, and the Chiefs take a nice 3-0 division lead with this win. Even if the Broncos do pull it out, it will take another last second field goal, and they won't cover. Chiefs 30, Broncos 24.

I have got to pee so bad, it’s insane. This is the last pick and I’m struggling to get it done so I can get the mail off to St. Ides and then make a mad sprint to the toilet. I might even be coerced to drop a deuce. Chiefs 31 – Broncos 24

Last Week
Samichlaus: 8-8
St. Ides: 4-12

Overall:
Samichlaus: 15 -17
St. Ides: 11-21