Week 4 Picks

And here we go again! Stats so far:

Last Week -
Samichlaus: 8-6
St. Ides: 7-7

Season -
Samichlaus: 23-23
St. Ides: 18-28

Due to circumstances totally under my control, my analysis will be quick and dirty this week. And let me say a special hello to my wife Karen who was very upset that I didn’t mention her once in last weeks picks…

Buffalo +0.5 over NEW ORLEANS
First "home" game for the Saints in San Antonio. Buffalo QB J.P. Losman has gotten worse each week instead of better. I just think the Bills defense is solid enough to give Aaron Brooks and company some trouble. I really want to take the Saints and say they'll play inspired football. I really do. But I just can't pull the trigger. Bills 24, Saints 20.

I want to believe. I saw this commercial with all the New York Giants wearing Saints uniforms and it really was touching. However, this is reality.
Bills 20, Saints 17

JAGUARS -3.5 over Denver
Denver looked like world beaters on Monday night against the Chiefs, making everybody second guess their declarations that the KC defense is much better this year and they're a real contender. But they were in Denver. The Jacksonville D shut down the high-powered Seattle and Indy offense, but then barely beat the horrible Jets. In Jacksonville, Jake Plummer returns to his usual self, and it's not even close. Jaguars 24, Broncos 10.

To quote Mike the bartender from the Stadium Sports Bar in Long Island City (regarding the Broncos) “They suck on the road”
Jaguars 24 Broncos 13

BUCS -7.5 over Lions
Joey Harrington, meet the Tampa Bay defense. The only thing going for the Lions in this game is that they won't have to worry about their home crowd booing the hell out of them. Bucs 24, Lions 10.

Yep. We agree again. This week is getting boring!
Bucs 27 Lions 15

BENGALS -9.5 over Texans
The Bengals are riding high, and have a pretty easy schedule the next few games. Most "experts" are picking them to be the last remaining unbeaten team. I won't go that far, but I do think their defense (5 INTS two weeks in a row) is catching up to their offense and they beat the poop out of the hapless Texans. Bengals 31, Texans 17.

Boomer Esiason called Carson Palmer the best young quarterback in the game, not David Carr.
Bengals 31 Texans 13

TITANS +7.5 over Colts
Peyton Manning is killing me. I took him with the #3 pick in the one fantasy league I'm in with an actual prize on the line, and he's killing me. Throw some frickin TDs, Peyton!!! All the talk is about how good the Colts D is now and how they can simply win games by pounding the ball with Edge James. Well, if the Colts are content to win games by 3-6 points by pounding the ball and playing defense, then I'm going to stop taking them. Last week, they were inside the Browns 20 with like 4 minutes to go leading by 7. They were giving 13. Touchdown, and they cover. Last year, Manning would have done a play action on 2nd and 1, and thrown an easy TD pass. This year, they ran and ran and ran, all the way down to the 5 yard line.... By then the clock was almost dead and the Browns were out of timeouts. A couple kneel downs, and game over. They didn't cover. Colts 24, Titans 18.

Damn, another complete agreement. I’m going to keep betting against the Colts until they prove me wrong.
Colts 20 Titties 17

CHIEFS -2.5 over Eagles
The Chiefs are back home after an embarassing loss in Denver, with Vermeil whining about Champ Bailey's "micced up" comments and the defense licking its wounds. McNabb is battered, but has played well. I think the home field is enough for the Chiefs to win this one, just barely. Chiefs 24, Eagles 20.

Finally. I took the Eagles in this game solely on the basis of last weeks games. That may be poor thinking but I’m going with it.
Eagles 31 Chiefs 24

Chargers +5.5 over PATS
More injuries for the Patriots - Rodney Harrison, some offensive lineman, and Kevin Faulk, all out. Meanwhile, the Chargers figured out all they have to do is give Tomlinson the ball. I think the Pats still win this, but not by more than a field goal. Patriots 26, Chargers 23.

I like San Diego in this game as well, but I’m wavering. The Pats lost Rodney Harrison this week and that’s huge. Although this makes life easier for Drew Brees, the Pats always seem to find a way to play good D no matter who they wheel out there. I’m sticking with my gut instinct, Patsies win but don’t cover…
Patriots 23 Chargers 20

Seahawks +2.5 over REDSKINS
I'm not going to ruin our mojo by going against Seattle this week. Yes, the Skins have a good defense. But their offense is pretty brutal. They're 2-0, but are about 5 plays from 0-2. As good as the Skins defense is, I still like our chances running the ball to the left behind Jones and Hutchinson. Oh, and ex-Seahawk Sean Springs will have something to prove. The bastard has been great since leaving Seattle, where injuries and a bad attitude had him playing as an ineffective nickel back when he left. Really though, I don't see the Washington offense getting much going, and the Seattle defense wins this one. Seahawks 17, Redskins 13.

Seattle is the most underrated team in the NFL. They win on the road…
Seahawks 24 Redskins 13

Rams +3.5 over GIANTS
The Rams suck on the road. Still, their offense usually manages to pull out a win or two every year that they should lose, despite Martz best efforts. The Giants shoud win this easily. Eli played well in the blowout against the Chargers, in a hostile environment. It was the defense that fell apart, and it's even worse off now with starting CB Will Peterson out. Rams 30, Giants 27.

I’m taking the Rams to win and cover. I think the loss of Peterson will be bigger to the G-men than the loss of Harrison to the Patroits.
Rams 34 Giants 20

Jets +7.5 over RAVENS
Everybody is writing off the Jets, and rightly so with some Bollinger guy at QB now, and the ageless Vinny Testeverde the backup. But the Ravens offense hasn't been all that great, even WITH all their starters. More than a touchdown is way too much to give in this one. Ravens win, but don't cover. Ravens 16, Jets 10.

Brooks Bollinger is better than everyone thinks. But the sight of Ray Lewis knifing through the line will be too much for the former Badger to handle.
Ravens 23 Jets 10

RAIDERS -3.5 over Cowboys
One of these days, Moss and Collins will have a huge game. Who better than against a Cowboys team that gave up those huge plays to blow the game against Washington? It also took Dallas a huge 4th quarter comeback to beat the awful Niners last week. Raiders 31, Cowboys 24.

Maybe there’s a part of me living in 1986 when Bill Parcels was a good coach. Don’t ask. I’m taking the ‘boys to win.
Cowboys 27 Raiders 20

FALCONS -6.5 over Vikings
Will the real Daunte Culpepper please stand up? Atlanta has a good enough defense to make Culpepper revert to his Weeks 1 and 2 interception throwing machine. Over/under is 3.5 on picks by Daunte. Falcons 30, Vikings 17.

Falcons at home and looking good. Vick’s still dinged and that forces him to actually act like a quarterback.
Vicks Herpes Infested Penis 34 – Vikings 17

Niners +2.5 over CARDINALS (in Mexico)
Oh, a real Sunday night treat! Two god awful teams playing in Mexico! Let's see if any of the Mexicans are clever enough to get on TV with a sign saying something like "El NFL en ESPaNol!" The only thing that would make this game interesting to watch would be if we get some fecal snow. Niners 34, Cardinals 27.

Fecal Snow????? What the hell is that?
Cardinals 20 - El Niner-0’s 13

Packers +8.5 over PANTHERS
I'll leave the in-depth analysis on this one to Samichlaus, but if the Packers don't at least cover in this game, it really might be time to start thinking about the draft. Too bad they took that QB this year, cause they might have a legit shot at Leinart. Panthers 24, Packers 20.

Rogers will be a better QB than Lienart, trust me. The Packers have lost their last two games by one and two points respectively. From all reports I’ve read they’ve practiced very well this week. I think they cover, and hope they win, but I can’t lie to our loyal readers any more.
Panthers 24 – Packers 21