Young QB Analysis - NFC

And now, the NFC QBs.

Recap of the system -. I'm going to list each QB, what year this will be for him, rate the amount of pressure/expectations he's under on a scale of 1-5 (1 being not much pressure, 5 being ready to get the hook after a bad performance), and then rate his chance of success for the season, and his career, also on a scale of 1-5 (1 being out of the league within a few years, 5 being Hall of Fame material). Oh, what the hell, I'll also list each QBs backup, so you have an idea of where part of the pressure rating came from:

Good Potential:

Eli Manning, New York Giants
Experience: 2nd year
Backup: Tim Hasselbeck
Pressure: 3
Season Success: 3
I think most people realize the Giants are still a few years away from playoff material. Still, Manning is expected to win some games now, and he won't be benched. They do have Plaxico Burress and Jeremy Shockey for him to throw to, and Tiki Barber has been solid out of the backfield. Eli should put up decent numbers, but still throw quite a few interceptions as he continues to learn. And I'm not so sure the Giants offensive line is good enough to keep him well protected.
Career Success: 4
Probably the highest upside of anybody on this list. But I'm not ready to anoint him Hall of Fame material just yet. I think his biggest obstacle is handling the pressure in NY. Something his father and brother didn't have to do while they were developing. I'm sorry, but New Orleans and Indianapolis are not NYC.

Solid Starters:

Kyle Orton, Chicago Bears
Experience: rookie
Backup: NA
Pressure: 2
Season Success: 3
Career Success: 3
A rookie QB who is getting the starting nod in Chicago due to yet another season-ending leg injury to Rex Grossman. Hard to evaluate a pure rookie, but this guy showed flashes of brilliance playing for Purdue. He has a decent combination of arm and mobility to probably have a decent career. Not a lot of pressure on him, since the Bears were pretty much expected to suck with or without Grossman. Now everybody expects them to suck even more.

Michael Vick, Atlanta Falcons
Experience: 5th year
Backup: Matt Schaub
Pressure: 3
Season Success: 3
Career Success: 3
Is Michael Vick the most exciting player in football to watch? Probably. Is he even a top 10 QB? Probably not. I think there are 3 things holding him back, and they will continue for the near future: 1) Atlanta is still primarily a running offense. 2) Atlanta's defense is good enough to allow the offense to be a running offense, controlling the ball and killing the clock. And 3) Vick's natural running and elusiveness gives him a mindset of "scramble first, throw second" which has totally prevented his passing game from developing the way it should. Any way you cut it, he is NOT an effective passer. Sure, you'll see plenty of ridiculous highlights of him running around in the pocket for 10 seconds, dodging would-be sacks, then heaving up a 40-yard bomb to a wide open receiver. What you won't see are the dozens of passes he throws behind receivers, over receivers. What you won't see is the time he scrambles 2 seconds too long, gets blind-sided, and fumbles the football. To put it simply, Vick's reputation is bigger than his actual talent as an NFL QB.

Busts:

Rex Grossman, Chicago Bears
Experience: 3rd year
Backup: Kyle Orton
Pressure: 1
Season Success: 1
Career Success: 2
Well, no pressure really this year if you're out for the second season in a row with a leg injury. And both these hits haven't been the kind of hits that when you see the replay you think to yourself, "Ouch, that's gonna be serious." Nope, they looked fairly routine, the kind of hits to the legs RBs take a dozen times every game. So, that leads me to believe he's going to keep getting hurt, and find himself out of a starting job sooner than later. Plus, he's out of Florida, which automatically makes him overrated.

Tim Rattay, San Francisco 49ers
Experience: 5th year
Backup: Alex Smith
Pressure: 3
Season Success: 2
Career Success: 2
Rattay has been given the starting job in San Fran simply because Alex Smith did not look ready. And while Rattay might have a few decent games in him, I don't think he's quite the sort of guy who will be starting anywhere in the next few years. He might make a solid career backup, but not much more than that. He'll probably start all season this year though, regardless of how the Niners fare. They won't win any more games with Smith in, and if they just wanted Smith to get the experience, why not throw him to the wolves in week 1?

Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers
Experience: rookie
Backup: NA
Pressure: 2
Season Success: 2
Career Success: 2
And, speaking of the Niners. Alex Smith was taken with the #1 overall pick. And the Niners were ready to make them their starter immediately. Sadly, he was woefully unprepared for that role, and he'll likely watch from the sidelines all season, unless Rattay gets hurt. Or maybe towards the end of the year when the Niners are on pace for the worst overall record. And the #1 pick. Now there is an interesting scenario, and one that several writers (to their credit) did in fact point out this past draft. What if the Niners finish dead last again, and land the #1 pick? USC QB Matt Leinart could very well win his second consecutive Heisman, and will likely be a unanimous #1 overall pick. So, do the Niners take two QBs in two consecutive years with two #1 overall picks? If they trade the pick or Smith, will they get even near to value, considering the corner they painted themselves into? What they should have done is taken Michigan WR Braylon Edwards this year and Leinart next year. That would have been a deadly combo for a decade. Anyways, back to Smith. Says here the Niners DO finish worst overall and DO draft Leinart, trading Smith for half price, and then Smith being so emotionally scarred he never puts it together.

Total Busts:

Patrick Ramsey, Washington Redskins
Experience: 4th year
Backup: Mark Brunell/Jason Campbell
Pressure: 4
Season Success: 2
Career Success: 1
Poor Ramsey has gotten such mixed feelings from his coaches over his first 3 years. He's gone from 3rd string, to starter, to backup, to 3rd string, and backup again. Like some awful confidence jarring roller coaster. And I think his confidence is beyond repair now, especially since Washington drafted Auburn QB Jason Campbell. The Skins are a playoff team if they get a decent showing from their QB. Which they haven't gotten in years. Dare I say since the days of Doug Williams and Jay Schroeder? Look for Ramsey to be benched or "injured" by week 8, and Campbell to come in and possibly make a playoff push. Ramsey is unlikely to land a starting job elsewhere.

Joey Harrington, Detroit Lions
Experience: 4th year
Backup: Jeff Garcia/Dan Orlovsky
Pressure: 4
Season Success: 2
Career Success: 1
It's do or die time for Joey Harrington! He has 3, count them THREE, first round WRs taken the past 3 years. He has a quality young RB in Kevin Jones. He doesn’t have a great defense, but that's no excuse any more, he should be able to put up points with the best of them. And their defense can't be any worse than the Packers, right? *ducks* The Lions brought in Garcia in the offseason, and there was some speculation that he would be allowed for the starting position. Those rumors was squashed, and Harrington was given the vote of confidence declaring he was still the starter. Still, he had to feel ol' Twinkle Toes breathing down his neck. Sadly, Garcia broke his leg and is out for several weeks. So that knocks the pressure down from a 5, but only to a 4. If he sucks, he could still be pulled. Never heard of Dan Orlovsky? Well, he's a rookie out of Uconn, not exactly a college football powerhouse, but he's fairly highly regarded. Patience with Harrington is wearing thin with the fans, management, and coaches. And if he doesn't perform, he's done. Says here he folds under the pressure, and is riding pine by week 10.