Week 2 Picks

Well, first let me say, I took WAY too many road teams this week… Out of 16 games, I only took 3 home teams. That's a likely recipe for disaster… Except that I don't think anybody has figured out who's good and who's not yet. Plus, with stuff still in such flux, the bookies don't quite know the right amount of points to put. So I took the points more times than not, and the team getting the points is generally the visitor...

The great Samichlaus is going through some major changes on the home front, hence the paucity of humorous ministrations on these pages. However I would like to assure our millions of fans that Mr. & Mrs. Samichlaus are doing well and are ready to face any daunting challenges the world may throw at us. Sadly, the same could not be said for the Packers offense…

Ravens -4.5 over TITANS
Although it's very tempting to bet against Anthony Wright at QB… I think the Titans are in the bottom 5 teams in the league right now. The Ravens defense is still very good, and McNair isn't getting any younger. A defensive or special teams score would not be a huge surprise. Ravens 20, Titans 6.

It’s hard for me to provide expert analysis about games that I couldn’t give a rats ass about. This is a fine example of one. I like the Ravens to bounce back from the Indy loss on all fronts. Ravens win 23 - 10

Bills +2.5 over TAMPA BAY
Both teams looked good last week.. Buffalo against the horrendous Texans, and the Bucs against the over-hyped Vikes. This should be a good battle of defenses. Cadillac Williams looked good in his debut, but the Bills run D ought to be tougher than Minnesota. Could this be the week J.P. Losman steps up and makes a big play to win the game? Probably not, but it should be close, no matter who wins. Bills 20, Bucs 17.

Losman has to face a real defense this week, and as much as I like the Bills this year, I see some growing pains in week 2 for the young quarterback. Tampa 20 Buffalo 10

Lions -2.5 over CHI
So, let's see… The Lions defense shut down the supposedly potent Green Bay offense last week. But their offense didn't exactly light it up against their supposedly dreadful defense. Chicago did about what was expected - their weak offense didn't do much against the solid Skins defense. And their good defense held down the weak Skins offense. Could it be the Lions defense is much improved? Maybe. But their offense still seems to stink. This is probably my toughest pick this week, but I'm going to go with the Lions. Yes, it's in Chicago, but it's not cold yet. Lions 13, Bears 10.

I like the Lions in this one as well, but a lot more than St. Ides does. Yes, they looked pretty good against the Packers, but did anyone notice how bad Chicago looked against the Redskins? Probably not, as even die hard Skins and Bears fans were tuning that one out after the second quarter. Weak armed Joey Harrington won’t have any problems with the weather: it’s going to be 82 and sunny, no wind. Detroit builds on last week’s win 27 - 6

Jaguars +9.5 over COLTS
Well, the Jaguars defense shutout the Seahawks in the second half last week. And although Seattle's offense is nowhere near as potent as the Colts, I do think Jacksonville's defense is solid. Flip it around, and we'll find out if the Colts defense really is much better or if the Ravens offense was just brutal. I think the Colts will win, but a late garbage touchdown will prevent them from covering almost 10 points. Colts 31, Jaguars 26.

Colts at home huh? Yeah, that’s a lot of points to cover but as I said last week the Colts can be scary good this year. I think this is Indy’s year. Colts 38 Jaguars 24

Vikings +3.5 over BENGALS
You know, the way I make these picks is I go through the teams and spreads, think about them for a sec, type out all my picks, then submit my "official" pool picks where I can win money. I may have to change that approach because the more I look at my picks after the actual submitting of them, the more I start to second guess some of them. This is one of them. The first thing that popped into my mind when I saw these two teams was "Vikings good, Bengals bad." Then when I just started typing this, I thought "Mike Tice" and suddenly I'm doubting this pick. But for the sake of consistency, I'll attempt to defend this choice. The Bengals defense is not nearly as good as Tampa Bay, and Culpepper only has a handful of those god awful 4-5 turnover games per season. The chances of him having two in a row are pretty slim. Plus, just as the Bengals are getting some good press and confidence, they're due for a stinker. Vikings 31, Bengals 20.

Did Mike Tice always sound like Herman Munster, or is that new? The Vikings are the proverbial pitcher with the million dollar arm and the ten cent brain. Tice is an idiot and Boomer Esiason really likes the Bengals Carson Palmer. Did I mention that last week? Bengals 34 Vikings 31 in the Samichlaus Shocker to everyone not named Samichlaus of the week.

Pats -3.5 over CAR
If Carolina couldn't beat the Saints, I'm not picking them over the Pats. Yes, the Saints are playing emotionally inspired ball. The Pats have been playing like that for years now. Basically, I'm not picking against the Patriots until they lose a game. Patriots 26, Panthers 13.

With fear and apologies to Anonymous, I’m picking the Cats. Sorry, but the Patriots didn’t exactly knock my socks off last week. Then again, they are the least flashy winningest team I’ve ever seen. I’m going out on a catwalk here: Cats 17 Pats 13

HOUSTON +6.5 over Steelers
One of the few home teams I'm taking this weak, and I'll probably regret it. Is Houston really that bad? I guess we'll find out. But this has "trap game" written all over it for the Steelers. A turnover or two, and the Texans can make a game of this. Or not. I just felt the need to take a home team. Steelers 26, Texans 20.

It’s the pretty little quarterback against the quarterback whose nickname is “Big”. Hey, my wife gave me a great idea for a nickname for David Carr: “Deliverance”. I think Pittsburgh is for real, and I like that rookie running back whose nickname is “fast”. Yeah, the Steelers have the better nicknames even with “The Bus” injured. Steelers win it “Big” 34 -17

Niners +13.5 over EAGLES
The Eagles will have something to prove this week after the rough loss in Atlanta. And, before the season started, this seemed like a blowout. However, the Niners upset the Rams last week and showed a bit of fight. And McNabb might not play this week. The Eagles will probably win on sheer defense alone, but not by 2 touchdowns they won't. Eagles 23, Niners 10.

You know, you’ll get no argument from me. I think that analysis is dead on balls accurate. I like the Eagles 24 – 17.

Falcons +0.5 over SEAHAWKS
I took this as my "Best Bet" pick this week. As good as Atlanta looked and as bad as Seattle looked, there's no way I can see the Seahawks winning this game. None. 0-2 here we come, baby! The Falcons defense is better than the Jaguars, and I don't see Seattle's revamped defense being able to contain Vick. It could get ugly. (Maybe this is reverse psychology, maybe it isn't. I'm not telling.) Falcons 27, Seahawks 13.

Let me officially screw St. Ides. I’m taking the Seahawks to win at home. A Mike Holmgren team doesn’t open 0 – 2, not with this much talent. Seahawks 31 – Vick’s Clap infested Penis 27.

ARIZONA -1.5 over Rams
Both teams lost games on the road they were expected to win. People are quickly jumping off of the Cardinals bandwagon. But not so fast. The Rams suck on the road. And there's some internal conflict behind the scenes in St. Louis, including one of their executive leaving a death threat on the answering machine of a reporter who wrote a not-so-flattering article. Nice. Although I hate to bet on Kurt Warner, I can see him being a little more fired up playing against his old team who gave up on him. And he does have good weapons at WR. He just needs his o-line to not totally suck. And against the Rams mediocre defense, they should be able to not suck. Cardinals 31, Rams 27.

Officially count me off the Cardinal bandwagon. What was I thinking? This is a tough game to forecast but here’s my take: the Rams battled back like crazy against the Niners last week. It was too little too late, but they showed some heart. As far as Warner is concerned, well lets just say that fundamentalist Christians have been on my distasteful list lately. I like the Rams 27 - 20

PACKERS -6.5 over Cleveland
The Packers limp home from Detroit, after a rough loss and losing Jevon Walker for the year. Cleveland got killed in their opener at home against arch-rival Cincinnati. Both teams need a win. I think the Packers are more talented, and home field helps too. Maybe their defense isn't as bad as advertised? Even if it is, Cleveland isn't exactly a top 5 offense. Packers 27, Browns 17.

After last weeks game, Karen and I agreed that we pitied the team that was going to have to face Favre this week. To say he was pissed during the final drive last week would be an understatement. Robert Ferguson steps in for Javon Walker and has a huge game. Pack wins an easy one, 31 – 10

Dolphins +6.5 over JETS
Here's betting on a few easy things I think: Nick Saban is a good coach. Gus Frerrotte isn't as bad as people think. Chad Pennington either sucks or is still hurting. Herm Edwards is not a good coach. And the Miami defense is still among the league's best. Fins 20, Jets 10.

Well, I like Herm Edwards. He kind of reminds me of New Orleans mayor Ray Nagin, you know, desperate…on the edge of a nervous breakdown. The Jets fans will be screaming “Just End The Season” as Saban makes a believer out of Samichlaus: Miami 30 Jets 17

Chargers + 3.5 over BRONCOS
The Chargers had a tough loss last week. For those of you who don't give a flying fuck about the AFC West, the Chargers had the ball 1st and goal at the 7 with time running out. A TD gives them a win over Dallas. They couldn't get it done. That wouldn't be so bad except that their top red zone threat (and probably one of the best in the entire league) Antonio Gates was setting out with a team-imposed suspension because he arrived at camp a day late. Gates said it was due to some travel complications, but the team was unyielding. Now, if they miss the playoffs because of being stubborn about suspending their best player, that will haunt them for years to come. Gates will be back this week. And Denver is in trouble. The Jake Plummer era in Denver could be approaching an ugly end. Chargers 24, Broncos 17.

Whatever. Broncos uhh, lets see, 24 and the Bolts, hmmm, 21??? OK. There. Denver wins 24 -21

Chiefs -1.5 over RAIDERS
Two of the biggest stories from week 1 involve the (seemingly) improved defense of the Colts and Chiefs. Which, with their already high-powered offenses, could put them at the top of the league. I don't buy it so much yet on the Colts. I do buy it on the Chiefs. Between Surtain, Derrick Johnson, and Bell, those are three big-time names. I was hoping seattle might have had a shot at drafting Johnson. Instead, we got Lofa in round 2. Collins and Moss will probably be good for a score or two, but not enough. Chiefs 33, Raiders 20.

Mr. St. Ides and I are not seeing eye to eye this week at all! As a rule I always favor the Raiders at home (unless they are playing on the day after the death of one of the parents of the opposing QB) and whoever is home against the Chiefs. The Chiefs like the Raiders are great at home and mediocre on the road. I’ll play the tendency: Raiders 34 Chiefs 20

Saints +3.5 over GIANTS
With what's happened in New Orleans, the Saints are a huge story right now. It's only one game, but they beat a tough Panthers team in Carolina. Even their "home" games now won't be true home games, split between San Antonio and Baton Rogue. Which means they'll probably be the underdog most weeks this season. Well, I might just bet them every week. Something unheard of just last season during the height of the inconsistent Jim Haslett/Aaron Brooks era. The team does have talent, and this sort of thing might just be the sort of kick in the ass they need to get over the hump. I think Haslett's job is safe for the season. Now, this week, they go into Giant stadium as the "home team" in spirit only. The crowd will be overwhelmingly blue. But Eli Manning is from New Orleans. I heard him on the radio this morning, and he was talking about how hard it has been to see footage of places he grew up just destroyed. How his parents wanted to come to the game Monday night, but are still dealing with the aftermath, and won't be able to make it. And how he and Peyton had been down there already to help give out supplies to the victims. His home was destroyed. And his opponent represents his home. Now, I don't think Eli is going to throw the game - he's paid by the Giants. But I just think that emotionally and sentimentally, and maybe even a little subconsciously, he wants the Saints to win. After all, he's only human. And it's only a game. Saints 27, Giants 24.

That is an amazing analysis. Dr. Phil would be proud, and I’m sold. That not withstanding I’ve liked the Saints all along in this one. There’s just been too much talk about how unfair it is that the Giants have an extra home game. The laws of karma / dogma decree that the Gints will lose. Who came up with that spelling anyway? It saves one fucking letter. Saints 24 GiAnts 10

Skins +6.5 over COWBOYS
After an impressive victory in San Diego last week, it's time for Drew Bledsoe to revert to his old "holds the ball too much" and "makes bad decisions" self against a very good Skins defense. Mark Brunell takes over at QB. And while that in itself probably isn't enough to win the game, he ought to be more competent than Ramsey. Here is what I wrote a week ago in my NFC QB analysis: "Look for Ramsey to be benched or "injured" by week 8, and Campbell to come in and possibly make a playoff push. Ramsey is unlikely to land a starting job elsewhere." Well, this came sooner than expected, so it's Brunell for now instead of Campbell. Still, should be a low scoring game, and I'll take the points. Cowboys 17, Redskins 13.

I’m not convince the Skins D is all that, and I have no clue what to make of Dallas. The ‘boys are in less turmoil that the ‘skins, at least they know who their QB is. That’s good enough to win but not good enough to cover. Take the Skins and the points: Boys 17 – Skins 14

Season Total:
St. Ides: 7-9
Samichlaus: 7-9